Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Jul 30, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Model pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv (77%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.06 – 1.79
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 21%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ludogorets | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|
| League position | #3 (3 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
*Ludogorets shown at home, Hapoel Tel Aviv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ludogorets — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 54% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Hapoel Tel Aviv — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ludogorets (home) | Hapoel Tel Aviv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 54% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 40% |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.06 vs 1.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (28%) |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (1X) | 18% |
| Double chance — Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 17% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet | 94% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hapoel Tel Aviv is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Despite playing away, Hapoel Tel Aviv edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — FAQ
Who will win Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?
Our statistical model makes Hapoel Tel Aviv the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Ludogorets 2%, draw 21%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 77%.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?
The model gives a 21% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?
Expected goals are 0.06 for Ludogorets and 1.79 for Hapoel Tel Aviv — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (28%). Double chance for Ludogorets or draw is 18%.