Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia
Model pick: Ludogorets (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.26 – 0.59
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ludogorets | Slavia Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #1 (15 pts) | #8 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
*Ludogorets shown at home, Slavia Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ludogorets — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 54% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Slavia Sofia — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ludogorets (home) | Slavia Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (1.7 / 0.3 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 54% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.26 vs 0.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Slavia Sofia or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 55% |
| Slavia Sofia clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Ludogorets are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Ludogorets 72%, draw 18%, Slavia Sofia 10%.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia?
Expected goals are 2.26 for Ludogorets and 0.59 for Slavia Sofia — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (15%). Double chance for Ludogorets or draw is 92%.