Luzern vs Thun Prediction & Preview
Super League (Switzerland) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Luzern vs Thun
Model pick: Thun (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.77 – 1.92
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Luzern | Thun |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Luzern shown at home, Thun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Luzern — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Thun — last 5
DWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Luzern (home) | Thun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Matteo Di Giusto (12) | Christopher Ibayi (10) |
Super League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Super League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.77 vs 1.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Luzern or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Thun or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Luzern clean sheet | 15% |
| Thun clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Thun is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Thun edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Luzern vs Thun — FAQ
Who will win Luzern vs Thun?
Our statistical model makes Thun the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Luzern 36%, draw 23%, Thun 41%.
Will both teams score in Luzern vs Thun?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Luzern vs Thun?
Expected goals are 1.77 for Luzern and 1.92 for Thun — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Luzern vs Thun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (8%). Double chance for Luzern or draw is 58%.