Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II Prediction & Preview
Segunda B (Spain) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 17:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA B (SPAIN)
Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II
Model pick: Mérida (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
22%
Deportivo La Coruña II
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.8
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mérida | Deportivo La Coruña II |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Mérida shown at home, Deportivo La Coruña II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mérida — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo La Coruña II — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mérida (home) | Deportivo La Coruña II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% |
Segunda B (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Segunda B (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Mérida or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Deportivo La Coruña II or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Mérida clean sheet | 45% |
| Deportivo La Coruña II clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mérida is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Mérida are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II — FAQ
Who will win Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Our statistical model makes Mérida the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Mérida 50%, draw 28%, Deportivo La Coruña II 22%.
Will both teams score in Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Mérida and 0.8 for Deportivo La Coruña II — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mérida vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Mérida or draw is 79%.