Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse
Model pick: Métlaoui (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 0.66
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Métlaoui | Hammam-Sousse |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
*Métlaoui shown at home, Hammam-Sousse shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Métlaoui — last 5
WWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Hammam-Sousse — last 5
LLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Métlaoui (home) | Hammam-Sousse (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 39% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Métlaoui or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Hammam-Sousse or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Métlaoui clean sheet | 52% |
| Hammam-Sousse clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Métlaoui is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Métlaoui are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse — FAQ
Who will win Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse?
Our statistical model makes Métlaoui the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Métlaoui 42%, draw 34%, Hammam-Sousse 24%.
Will both teams score in Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Métlaoui and 0.66 for Hammam-Sousse — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Métlaoui vs Hammam-Sousse?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Métlaoui or draw is 77%.