Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd
Model pick: IMT Novi Beograd (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.6 – 1.66
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mačva Šabac | IMT Novi Beograd |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #1 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 3.0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Mačva Šabac shown at home, IMT Novi Beograd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mačva Šabac — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
IMT Novi Beograd — last 5
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On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mačva Šabac (home) | IMT Novi Beograd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 2-0-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 46% |
| Top scorer | – | Charly Keita (4) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.6 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Mačva Šabac or draw (1X) | 37% |
| Double chance — IMT Novi Beograd or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Mačva Šabac clean sheet | 19% |
| IMT Novi Beograd clean sheet | 55% |
🎯 Our Verdict
IMT Novi Beograd is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, IMT Novi Beograd edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd — FAQ
Who will win Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Our statistical model makes IMT Novi Beograd the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Mačva Šabac 16%, draw 26%, IMT Novi Beograd 59%.
Will both teams score in Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Expected goals are 0.6 for Mačva Šabac and 1.66 for IMT Novi Beograd — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Mačva Šabac or draw is 37%.