Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac
Model pick: Radnički Kragujevac (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.64 – 1.49
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mačva Šabac | Radnički Kragujevac |
|---|
| League position | #11 (7 pts) | #5 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Mačva Šabac shown at home, Radnički Kragujevac shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mačva Šabac — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Radnički Kragujevac — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mačva Šabac (home) | Radnički Kragujevac (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-2 in 4 (0.5 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 48% |
| Top scorer | – | Ester Sokler (10) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.64 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Mačva Šabac or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — Radnički Kragujevac or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Mačva Šabac clean sheet | 23% |
| Radnički Kragujevac clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Radnički Kragujevac is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Despite playing away, Radnički Kragujevac edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac — FAQ
Who will win Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac?
Our statistical model makes Radnički Kragujevac the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Mačva Šabac 18%, draw 28%, Radnički Kragujevac 54%.
Will both teams score in Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac?
Expected goals are 0.64 for Mačva Šabac and 1.49 for Radnički Kragujevac — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Kragujevac?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Mačva Šabac or draw is 42%.