Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen
Model pick: Maaslingen (86%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
6%
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen
Expected goals: 4.85 – 1.23
Total goals: 6.1
Over 2.5: 82%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Maaslingen | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.25 / 2.0 | 1.67 / 2.0 |
*Maaslingen shown at home, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Maaslingen — last 5
LWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — last 5
LWL
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Maaslingen (home) | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.85 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Maaslingen or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — SpVgg Herne Horsthausen or draw (X2) | 10% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 94% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Maaslingen clean sheet | 29% |
| SpVgg Herne Horsthausen clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maaslingen is the model's most likely outcome at
86%. Maaslingen are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.1, this shapes as an open game (82% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — FAQ
Who will win Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
Our statistical model makes Maaslingen the most likely result at 86%. Full probabilities: Maaslingen 86%, draw 8%, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 6%.
Will both teams score in Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
Expected goals are 4.85 for Maaslingen and 1.23 for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — about 6.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Maaslingen vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-1 (7%). Double chance for Maaslingen or draw is 96%.