Macará vs Guayaquil City Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Macará vs Guayaquil City
Model pick: Macará (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Macará | Guayaquil City |
|---|
| League position | #5 (32 pts) | #10 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Macará shown at home, Guayaquil City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Macará — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Guayaquil City — last 5
WDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Macará (home) | Guayaquil City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-3 in 11 (1.4 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-3-5 in 11 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Franco Posse (4) | – |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Macará or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Guayaquil City or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Macará clean sheet | 52% |
| Guayaquil City clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Macará is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Macará are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Macará vs Guayaquil City — FAQ
Who will win Macará vs Guayaquil City?
Our statistical model makes Macará the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Macará 52%, draw 28%, Guayaquil City 19%.
Will both teams score in Macará vs Guayaquil City?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Macará vs Guayaquil City?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Macará and 0.65 for Guayaquil City — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Macará vs Guayaquil City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Macará or draw is 83%.