Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction & Preview
Ligat Al (Israel) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGAT AL (ISRAEL)
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Model pick: Maccabi Haifa (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.11 – 0.96
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Maccabi Haifa | Hapoel Petah Tikva |
|---|
| League position | #5 (3 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Maccabi Haifa shown at home, Hapoel Petah Tikva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Maccabi Haifa — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Hapoel Petah Tikva — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Maccabi Haifa (home) | Hapoel Petah Tikva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
Ligat Al (Israel) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligat Al (Israel) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.11 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Maccabi Haifa or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Maccabi Haifa clean sheet | 38% |
| Hapoel Petah Tikva clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maccabi Haifa is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Maccabi Haifa are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — FAQ
Who will win Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva?
Our statistical model makes Maccabi Haifa the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Maccabi Haifa 60%, draw 22%, Hapoel Petah Tikva 18%.
Will both teams score in Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva?
Expected goals are 2.11 for Maccabi Haifa and 0.96 for Hapoel Petah Tikva — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Maccabi Haifa or draw is 84%.