Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction & Preview
Ligat Al (Israel) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGAT AL (ISRAEL)
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias
Model pick: Maccabi Petah Tikva (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Maccabi Petah Tikva | Ironi Tiberias |
|---|
| League position | #1 (6 pts) | #14 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*Maccabi Petah Tikva shown at home, Ironi Tiberias shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Maccabi Petah Tikva — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Ironi Tiberias — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Maccabi Petah Tikva (home) | Ironi Tiberias (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 41% |
Ligat Al (Israel) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligat Al (Israel) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Ironi Tiberias or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Maccabi Petah Tikva clean sheet | 30% |
| Ironi Tiberias clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maccabi Petah Tikva is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Maccabi Petah Tikva are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias — FAQ
Who will win Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias?
Our statistical model makes Maccabi Petah Tikva the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Maccabi Petah Tikva 38%, draw 28%, Ironi Tiberias 34%.
Will both teams score in Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 1.2 for Ironi Tiberias — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw is 66%.