Mainz 05 vs Paderborn Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Mainz 05 vs Paderborn
Model pick: Mainz 05 (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.64
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mainz 05 | Paderborn |
|---|
| League position | #7 (13 pts) | #3 (62 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.3 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.8 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
*Mainz 05 shown at home, Paderborn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mainz 05 — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Paderborn — last 5
DWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mainz 05 (home) | Paderborn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (1.7 / 0.3 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Laurin Curda (7) |
Bundesliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Bundesliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 0.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Mainz 05 or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Paderborn or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Mainz 05 clean sheet | 53% |
| Paderborn clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mainz 05 is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Mainz 05 are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Mainz 05 vs Paderborn — FAQ
Who will win Mainz 05 vs Paderborn?
Our statistical model makes Mainz 05 the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Mainz 05 55%, draw 25%, Paderborn 20%.
Will both teams score in Mainz 05 vs Paderborn?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mainz 05 vs Paderborn?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Mainz 05 and 0.64 for Paderborn — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mainz 05 vs Paderborn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Mainz 05 or draw is 84%.