Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi
Model pick: Malavan (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Malavan | Fajr Sepasi |
|---|
| League position | #8 (1 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Malavan shown at home, Fajr Sepasi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Malavan — last 5
LWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 31% of home games go over 2.5.
Fajr Sepasi — last 5
WLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 19% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Malavan (home) | Fajr Sepasi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 19% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 41%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Malavan or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Fajr Sepasi or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Malavan clean sheet | 39% |
| Fajr Sepasi clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Malavan is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Malavan are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi — FAQ
Who will win Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi?
Our statistical model makes Malavan the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Malavan 38%, draw 31%, Fajr Sepasi 32%.
Will both teams score in Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Malavan and 0.95 for Fajr Sepasi — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Malavan or draw is 69%.