Malavan vs Zob Ahan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Malavan vs Zob Ahan
Model pick: Malavan (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.93 – 0.81
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Malavan | Zob Ahan |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #10 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
*Malavan shown at home, Zob Ahan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Malavan — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 31% of home games go over 2.5.
Zob Ahan — last 5
DDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Malavan (home) | Zob Ahan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 38% |
| Top scorer | – | Milad Zakipour (1) |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.93 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Malavan or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Zob Ahan or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Malavan clean sheet | 44% |
| Zob Ahan clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Malavan is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Malavan are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Malavan vs Zob Ahan — FAQ
Who will win Malavan vs Zob Ahan?
Our statistical model makes Malavan the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Malavan 36%, draw 34%, Zob Ahan 30%.
Will both teams score in Malavan vs Zob Ahan?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Malavan vs Zob Ahan?
Expected goals are 0.93 for Malavan and 0.81 for Zob Ahan — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Malavan vs Zob Ahan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (18%). Double chance for Malavan or draw is 70%.