Mallorca vs Ceuta Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Mallorca vs Ceuta
Model pick: Mallorca (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.77 – 0.73
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mallorca | Ceuta |
|---|
| League position | #12 (3 pts) | #22 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 5.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Mallorca shown at home, Ceuta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mallorca — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Ceuta — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mallorca (home) | Ceuta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 5.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 46% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.77 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Mallorca or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Ceuta or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Mallorca clean sheet | 48% |
| Ceuta clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mallorca is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Mallorca are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mallorca vs Ceuta — FAQ
Who will win Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Our statistical model makes Mallorca the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Mallorca 61%, draw 23%, Ceuta 16%.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
Expected goals are 1.77 for Mallorca and 0.73 for Ceuta — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mallorca vs Ceuta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Mallorca or draw is 85%.