Malmö FF vs Degerfors Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Malmö FF vs Degerfors
Model pick: Malmö FF (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.3 – 0.76
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Malmö FF | Degerfors |
|---|
| League position | #35 (1 pts) | #15 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 14% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
*Malmö FF shown at home, Degerfors shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Malmö FF — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Degerfors — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Malmö FF (home) | Degerfors (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-2-4 in 7 (0.9 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.3 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Malmö FF or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Degerfors or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Malmö FF clean sheet | 47% |
| Degerfors clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Malmö FF is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Malmö FF are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Malmö FF vs Degerfors — FAQ
Who will win Malmö FF vs Degerfors?
Our statistical model makes Malmö FF the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Malmö FF 63%, draw 21%, Degerfors 16%.
Will both teams score in Malmö FF vs Degerfors?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Malmö FF vs Degerfors?
Expected goals are 2.3 for Malmö FF and 0.76 for Degerfors — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Malmö FF vs Degerfors?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Malmö FF or draw is 89%.