Malmö FF vs Elfsborg Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Malmö FF vs Elfsborg
Model pick: Malmö FF (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.2 – 1.09
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Malmö FF | Elfsborg |
|---|
| League position | #35 (1 pts) | #9 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 2.4 |
*Malmö FF shown at home, Elfsborg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Malmö FF — last 5
DWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Elfsborg — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Malmö FF (home) | Elfsborg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-3-2 in 6 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.2 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Malmö FF or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Elfsborg or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Malmö FF clean sheet | 34% |
| Elfsborg clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Malmö FF is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Malmö FF are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Malmö FF vs Elfsborg — FAQ
Who will win Malmö FF vs Elfsborg?
Our statistical model makes Malmö FF the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Malmö FF 58%, draw 22%, Elfsborg 20%.
Will both teams score in Malmö FF vs Elfsborg?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Malmö FF vs Elfsborg?
Expected goals are 2.2 for Malmö FF and 1.09 for Elfsborg — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Malmö FF vs Elfsborg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Malmö FF or draw is 82%.