Manta vs Mushuc Runa Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Manta vs Mushuc Runa
Model pick: Manta (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Manta | Mushuc Runa |
|---|
| League position | #16 (14 pts) | #12 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Manta shown at home, Mushuc Runa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Manta — last 5
DLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Mushuc Runa — last 5
WLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Manta (home) | Mushuc Runa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-6 in 11 (0.4 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-3-6 in 10 (1.3 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Carlos Blanco Jean (3) | Edmundo Carrillo Morales Ronie (8) |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Manta or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Mushuc Runa or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Manta clean sheet | 27% |
| Mushuc Runa clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Manta is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Manta are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Manta vs Mushuc Runa — FAQ
Who will win Manta vs Mushuc Runa?
Our statistical model makes Manta the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Manta 39%, draw 27%, Mushuc Runa 34%.
Will both teams score in Manta vs Mushuc Runa?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Manta vs Mushuc Runa?
Expected goals are 1.45 for Manta and 1.31 for Mushuc Runa — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Manta vs Mushuc Runa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Manta or draw is 66%.