Marítimo vs Benfica Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Marítimo vs Benfica
Model pick: Benfica (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.7 – 2.28
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Marítimo | Benfica |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #24 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 |
*Marítimo shown at home, Benfica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Marítimo — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Benfica — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 46% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Marítimo (home) | Benfica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 52% |
| Top scorer | – | Andreas Schjelderup (3) |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.7 vs 2.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — Marítimo or draw (1X) | 27% |
| Double chance — Benfica or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Marítimo clean sheet | 10% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benfica is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Benfica edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Marítimo vs Benfica — FAQ
Who will win Marítimo vs Benfica?
Our statistical model makes Benfica the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Marítimo 12%, draw 20%, Benfica 68%.
Will both teams score in Marítimo vs Benfica?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Marítimo vs Benfica?
Expected goals are 0.7 for Marítimo and 2.28 for Benfica — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Marítimo vs Benfica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for Marítimo or draw is 27%.