Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor
Model pick: Draw (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.28 – 0.24
Total goals: 0.5
Over 2.5: 9%
Both teams score: 22%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mardin 1969 | Antalyaspor |
|---|
| League position | #13 (1 pts) | #16 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 0.5 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Mardin 1969 shown at home, Antalyaspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mardin 1969 — last 5
LD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Antalyaspor — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mardin 1969 (home) | Antalyaspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 3-4-10 in 17 (0.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 49% |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.28 vs 0.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (59%) |
| Double chance — Mardin 1969 or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Antalyaspor or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 36% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Mardin 1969 clean sheet | 79% |
| Antalyaspor clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (91% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor — FAQ
Who will win Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Mardin 1969 22%, draw 59%, Antalyaspor 19%.
Will both teams score in Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor?
The model gives a 22% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor?
Expected goals are 0.28 for Mardin 1969 and 0.24 for Antalyaspor — about 0.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mardin 1969 vs Antalyaspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (59%). Double chance for Mardin 1969 or draw is 83%.