Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor
Model pick: Mardin 1969 (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.88 – 0.24
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 30%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mardin 1969 | Bodrumspor |
|---|
| League position | #4 (8 pts) | #16 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 1.0 |
*Mardin 1969 shown at home, Bodrumspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mardin 1969 — last 5
LDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Bodrumspor — last 5
LLDDD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mardin 1969 (home) | Bodrumspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 38% |
| Top scorer | – | Taulant Seferi (11) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.88 vs 0.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — Mardin 1969 or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Bodrumspor or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 60% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Mardin 1969 clean sheet | 79% |
| Bodrumspor clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mardin 1969 is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Mardin 1969 are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor — FAQ
Who will win Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor?
Our statistical model makes Mardin 1969 the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Mardin 1969 48%, draw 40%, Bodrumspor 12%.
Will both teams score in Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor?
The model gives a 30% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor?
Expected goals are 0.88 for Mardin 1969 and 0.24 for Bodrumspor — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (33%). Double chance for Mardin 1969 or draw is 90%.