Maribor vs Grosuplje Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Maribor vs Grosuplje
Model pick: Grosuplje (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.14 – 1.25
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 29%
Both teams score: 27%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Maribor | Grosuplje |
|---|
| League position | #6 (1 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
*Maribor shown at home, Grosuplje shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Maribor — last 5
WDDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Grosuplje — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Maribor (home) | Grosuplje (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 0% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.14 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (31%) |
| Double chance — Maribor or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Grosuplje or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Maribor clean sheet | 29% |
| Grosuplje clean sheet | 87% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Grosuplje is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Despite playing away, Grosuplje edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (71% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Maribor vs Grosuplje — FAQ
Who will win Maribor vs Grosuplje?
Our statistical model makes Grosuplje the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Maribor 6%, draw 32%, Grosuplje 63%.
Will both teams score in Maribor vs Grosuplje?
The model gives a 27% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Maribor vs Grosuplje?
Expected goals are 0.14 for Maribor and 1.25 for Grosuplje — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Maribor vs Grosuplje?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (31%). Double chance for Maribor or draw is 34%.