Maribor vs Koper Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Maribor vs Koper
Model pick: Maribor (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Maribor | Koper |
|---|
| League position | #3 (5 pts) | #4 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Maribor shown at home, Koper shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Maribor — last 5
DDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Koper — last 5
WWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Maribor (home) | Koper (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Maribor or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Koper or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Maribor clean sheet | 31% |
| Koper clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maribor is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Maribor are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Maribor vs Koper — FAQ
Who will win Maribor vs Koper?
Our statistical model makes Maribor the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Maribor 44%, draw 26%, Koper 29%.
Will both teams score in Maribor vs Koper?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Maribor vs Koper?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Maribor and 1.17 for Koper — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Maribor vs Koper?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Maribor or draw is 71%.