Maribor vs Mura Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Maribor vs Mura
Model pick: Maribor (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 0.78
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Maribor | Mura |
|---|
| League position | #1 (15 pts) | #9 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 2.4 |
*Maribor shown at home, Mura shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Maribor — last 5
DDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Mura — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Maribor (home) | Mura (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.7 / 0.3 goals per game) | 1-1-2 in 4 (1.5 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Maribor or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Mura or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Maribor clean sheet | 46% |
| Mura clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maribor is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Maribor are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Maribor vs Mura — FAQ
Who will win Maribor vs Mura?
Our statistical model makes Maribor the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Maribor 60%, draw 23%, Mura 17%.
Will both teams score in Maribor vs Mura?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Maribor vs Mura?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Maribor and 0.78 for Mura — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Maribor vs Mura?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Maribor or draw is 86%.