Mariehamn vs Jaro Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
Mariehamn vs Jaro
Model pick: Mariehamn (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.23
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mariehamn | Jaro |
|---|
| League position | #12 (11 pts) | #11 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0.4 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 10% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*Mariehamn shown at home, Jaro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mariehamn — last 5
DLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Jaro — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mariehamn (home) | Jaro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-4-5 in 10 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) | 0-2-8 in 10 (0.4 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Mariehamn or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Jaro or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Mariehamn clean sheet | 29% |
| Jaro clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mariehamn is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Mariehamn are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mariehamn vs Jaro — FAQ
Who will win Mariehamn vs Jaro?
Our statistical model makes Mariehamn the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Mariehamn 40%, draw 27%, Jaro 33%.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Jaro?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mariehamn vs Jaro?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Mariehamn and 1.23 for Jaro — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mariehamn vs Jaro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Mariehamn or draw is 66%.