Mariehamn vs SJK Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
Mariehamn vs SJK
Model pick: SJK (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 2.06
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mariehamn | SJK |
|---|
| League position | #12 (5 pts) | #10 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.6 / 1.9 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Mariehamn shown at home, SJK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mariehamn — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
SJK — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mariehamn (home) | SJK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-4-5 in 9 (0.6 / 1.9 goals per game) | 1-3-5 in 9 (1.0 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 2.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Mariehamn or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — SJK or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Mariehamn clean sheet | 13% |
| SJK clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
SJK is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, SJK edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mariehamn vs SJK — FAQ
Who will win Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our statistical model makes SJK the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Mariehamn 18%, draw 21%, SJK 61%.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Mariehamn and 2.06 for SJK — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Mariehamn or draw is 42%.