Mash'al vs Andijan Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Mash'al vs Andijan
Model pick: Andijan (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mash'al | Andijan |
|---|
| League position | #16 (4 pts) | #8 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.4 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 12% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Mash'al shown at home, Andijan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mash'al — last 5
WDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Andijan — last 5
DWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mash'al (home) | Andijan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-6 in 8 (0.4 / 1.4 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 43% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Mash'al or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Andijan or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Mash'al clean sheet | 27% |
| Andijan clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Andijan is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Andijan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mash'al vs Andijan — FAQ
Who will win Mash'al vs Andijan?
Our statistical model makes Andijan the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Mash'al 29%, draw 29%, Andijan 43%.
Will both teams score in Mash'al vs Andijan?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mash'al vs Andijan?
Expected goals are 0.99 for Mash'al and 1.32 for Andijan — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mash'al vs Andijan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Mash'al or draw is 56%.