Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg
Model pick: Olimpia Elbląg (90%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
3%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Expected goals: 0.64 – 4.31
Total goals: 4.9
Over 2.5: 75%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | Olimpia Elbląg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki shown at home, Olimpia Elbląg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki — last 5
LDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Elbląg — last 5
DDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (home) | Olimpia Elbląg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 42% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.64 vs 4.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-4 (11%) |
| Double chance — Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw (1X) | 7% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Elbląg or draw (X2) | 98% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 95% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet | 1% |
| Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpia Elbląg is the model's most likely outcome at
90%. Despite playing away, Olimpia Elbląg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.9, this shapes as an open game (75% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg — FAQ
Who will win Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg?
Our statistical model makes Olimpia Elbląg the most likely result at 90%. Full probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 3%, draw 7%, Olimpia Elbląg 90%.
Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg?
Expected goals are 0.64 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and 4.31 for Olimpia Elbląg — about 4.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elbląg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-4 (11%). Double chance for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw is 7%.