Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów
Model pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
47%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Expected goals: 3.13 – 2.66
Total goals: 5.8
Over 2.5: 81%
Both teams score: 74%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | Olimpia Zambrów |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 2.2 |
*Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki shown at home, Olimpia Zambrów shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Zambrów — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (home) | Olimpia Zambrów (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.13 vs 2.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-2 (6%) |
| Double chance — Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Zambrów or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet | 7% |
| Olimpia Zambrów clean sheet | 4% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.8, this shapes as an open game (81% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów — FAQ
Who will win Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów?
Our statistical model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 47%, draw 19%, Olimpia Zambrów 34%.
Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów?
The model gives a 74% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów?
Expected goals are 3.13 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and 2.66 for Olimpia Zambrów — about 5.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Zambrów?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-2 (6%). Double chance for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw is 66%.