Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki
Model pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
48%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Expected goals: 1.02 – 0.39
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 37%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | Zabki |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.75 | 0.67 / 2.0 |
*Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki shown at home, Zabki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki — last 5
LDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Zabki — last 5
DLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (home) | Zabki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 0.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (25%) |
| Double chance — Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Zabki or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki clean sheet | 68% |
| Zabki clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki — FAQ
Who will win Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki?
Our statistical model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 48%, draw 35%, Zabki 16%.
Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki?
The model gives a 37% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and 0.39 for Zabki — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Zabki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (25%). Double chance for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki or draw is 86%.