Meerbusch vs Baumberg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Meerbusch vs Baumberg
Model pick: Baumberg (68%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.28 – 1.67
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Meerbusch | Baumberg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 3.5 | 0.5 / 4.0 |
*Meerbusch shown at home, Baumberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Meerbusch — last 5
LL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Baumberg — last 5
LD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Meerbusch (home) | Baumberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.28 vs 1.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (24%) |
| Double chance — Meerbusch or draw (1X) | 27% |
| Double chance — Baumberg or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Meerbusch clean sheet | 19% |
| Baumberg clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Baumberg is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Baumberg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Meerbusch vs Baumberg — FAQ
Who will win Meerbusch vs Baumberg?
Our statistical model makes Baumberg the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Meerbusch 8%, draw 24%, Baumberg 68%.
Will both teams score in Meerbusch vs Baumberg?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Meerbusch vs Baumberg?
Expected goals are 0.28 for Meerbusch and 1.67 for Baumberg — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Meerbusch vs Baumberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (24%). Double chance for Meerbusch or draw is 27%.