Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Melgar vs Alianza Lima
Model pick: Melgar (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Melgar | Alianza Lima |
|---|
| League position | #5 (31 pts) | #1 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Melgar shown at home, Alianza Lima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Melgar — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Lima — last 5
WDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Melgar (home) | Alianza Lima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.25 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Melgar or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Melgar clean sheet | 37% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Melgar is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Melgar are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Melgar vs Alianza Lima — FAQ
Who will win Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Our statistical model makes Melgar the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Melgar 41%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 30%.
Will both teams score in Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Expected goals are 1.25 for Melgar and 1.0 for Alianza Lima — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Melgar or draw is 70%.