Mercadal vs Formentera Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Mercadal vs Formentera
Model pick: Formentera (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mercadal | Formentera |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Mercadal shown at home, Formentera shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mercadal — last 5
LWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Formentera — last 5
DWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mercadal (home) | Formentera (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 49% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.92 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Mercadal or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Formentera or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Mercadal clean sheet | 30% |
| Formentera clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Formentera is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Formentera edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mercadal vs Formentera — FAQ
Who will win Mercadal vs Formentera?
Our statistical model makes Formentera the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Mercadal 29%, draw 30%, Formentera 41%.
Will both teams score in Mercadal vs Formentera?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mercadal vs Formentera?
Expected goals are 0.92 for Mercadal and 1.19 for Formentera — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mercadal vs Formentera?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Mercadal or draw is 58%.