Merthyr Town vs Chorley Prediction & Preview
National League N/S (England) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NATIONAL LEAGUE N/S (ENGLAND)
Merthyr Town vs Chorley
Model pick: Merthyr Town (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.92 – 1.63
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Merthyr Town | Chorley |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Merthyr Town shown at home, Chorley shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Merthyr Town — last 5
LWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 76% of home games go over 2.5.
Chorley — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Merthyr Town (home) | Chorley (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 47% |
National League N/S (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.79
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these National League N/S (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.92 vs 1.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Merthyr Town or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Chorley or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Merthyr Town clean sheet | 20% |
| Chorley clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Merthyr Town is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Merthyr Town are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Merthyr Town vs Chorley — FAQ
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Our statistical model makes Merthyr Town the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Merthyr Town 43%, draw 23%, Chorley 33%.
Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Expected goals are 1.92 for Merthyr Town and 1.63 for Chorley — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Merthyr Town or draw is 67%.