Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad
Model pick: Kheybar Khorramabad (84%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.13 – 2.38
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 29%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mes Shahr Babak | Kheybar Khorramabad |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.25 / 1.25 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Mes Shahr Babak shown at home, Kheybar Khorramabad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mes Shahr Babak — last 5
WDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Kheybar Khorramabad — last 5
LWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 27% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mes Shahr Babak (home) | Kheybar Khorramabad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 27% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.13 vs 2.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (23%) |
| Double chance — Mes Shahr Babak or draw (1X) | 12% |
| Double chance — Kheybar Khorramabad or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Mes Shahr Babak clean sheet | 9% |
| Kheybar Khorramabad clean sheet | 88% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kheybar Khorramabad is the model's most likely outcome at
84%. Despite playing away, Kheybar Khorramabad edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad — FAQ
Who will win Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
Our statistical model makes Kheybar Khorramabad the most likely result at 84%. Full probabilities: Mes Shahr Babak 2%, draw 14%, Kheybar Khorramabad 84%.
Will both teams score in Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
The model gives a 29% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
Expected goals are 0.13 for Mes Shahr Babak and 2.38 for Kheybar Khorramabad — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mes Shahr Babak vs Kheybar Khorramabad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (23%). Double chance for Mes Shahr Babak or draw is 12%.