Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan
Model pick: Malavan (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.56 – 1.17
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mes Shahr Babak | Malavan |
|---|
| League position | #16 (3 pts) | #15 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Mes Shahr Babak shown at home, Malavan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mes Shahr Babak — last 5
WLDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Malavan — last 5
DWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 26% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mes Shahr Babak (home) | Malavan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 26% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 41%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.56 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (21%) |
| Double chance — Mes Shahr Babak or draw (1X) | 49% |
| Double chance — Malavan or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Mes Shahr Babak clean sheet | 31% |
| Malavan clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Malavan is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Malavan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan — FAQ
Who will win Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan?
Our statistical model makes Malavan the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Mes Shahr Babak 20%, draw 32%, Malavan 48%.
Will both teams score in Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan?
Expected goals are 0.56 for Mes Shahr Babak and 1.17 for Malavan — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mes Shahr Babak vs Malavan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (21%). Double chance for Mes Shahr Babak or draw is 49%.