Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft
Model pick: Sanat Naft (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.76 – 1.75
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mes Shahr Babak | Sanat Naft |
|---|
| League position | #17 (1 pts) | #11 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
*Mes Shahr Babak shown at home, Sanat Naft shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mes Shahr Babak — last 5
WDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Sanat Naft — last 5
WWWDD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mes Shahr Babak (home) | Sanat Naft (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 33% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.76 vs 1.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Mes Shahr Babak or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Sanat Naft or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Mes Shahr Babak clean sheet | 17% |
| Sanat Naft clean sheet | 47% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sanat Naft is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Sanat Naft edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft — FAQ
Who will win Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft?
Our statistical model makes Sanat Naft the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Mes Shahr Babak 18%, draw 25%, Sanat Naft 57%.
Will both teams score in Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft?
Expected goals are 0.76 for Mes Shahr Babak and 1.75 for Sanat Naft — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mes Shahr Babak vs Sanat Naft?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Mes Shahr Babak or draw is 39%.