Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali
Model pick: Samgurali (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.36
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Meshakhte Tkibuli | Samgurali |
|---|
| League position | #10 (11 pts) | #7 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.4 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Meshakhte Tkibuli shown at home, Samgurali shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Meshakhte Tkibuli — last 5
DDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Samgurali — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Meshakhte Tkibuli (home) | Samgurali (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-5-4 in 9 (0.4 / 1.9 goals per game) | 2-2-6 in 10 (1.1 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Samgurali or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Meshakhte Tkibuli clean sheet | 26% |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Samgurali is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Samgurali edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali — FAQ
Who will win Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali?
Our statistical model makes Samgurali the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Meshakhte Tkibuli 31%, draw 28%, Samgurali 41%.
Will both teams score in Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Meshakhte Tkibuli and 1.36 for Samgurali — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw is 57%.