Metz vs Guingamp Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Metz vs Guingamp
Model pick: Metz (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.99 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Metz | Guingamp |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*Metz shown at home, Guingamp shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Metz — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Guingamp — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Metz (home) | Guingamp (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Louis Mafouta (15) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.99 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Metz or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Guingamp or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Metz clean sheet | 40% |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Metz is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Metz are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Metz vs Guingamp — FAQ
Who will win Metz vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model makes Metz the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Metz 52%, draw 25%, Guingamp 23%.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Guingamp?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Metz vs Guingamp?
Expected goals are 1.99 for Metz and 0.91 for Guingamp — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Metz vs Guingamp?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Metz or draw is 84%.