Midtjylland vs Horsens Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Denmark) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (DENMARK)
Midtjylland vs Horsens
Model pick: Midtjylland (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.69 – 0.76
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Midtjylland | Horsens |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Midtjylland shown at home, Horsens shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Midtjylland — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Horsens — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Midtjylland (home) | Horsens (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 48% |
Super Liga (Denmark) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.84
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super Liga (Denmark) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.69 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Midtjylland or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Horsens or draw (X2) | 22% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Midtjylland clean sheet | 47% |
| Horsens clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Midtjylland is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Midtjylland are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Midtjylland vs Horsens — FAQ
Who will win Midtjylland vs Horsens?
Our statistical model makes Midtjylland the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Midtjylland 71%, draw 18%, Horsens 11%.
Will both teams score in Midtjylland vs Horsens?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Midtjylland vs Horsens?
Expected goals are 2.69 for Midtjylland and 0.76 for Horsens — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Midtjylland vs Horsens?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Midtjylland or draw is 92%.