Mirandés II vs Palencia CF Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Mirandés II vs Palencia CF
Model pick: Mirandés II (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mirandés II | Palencia CF |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Mirandés II shown at home, Palencia CF shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mirandés II — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Palencia CF — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 34% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mirandés II (home) | Palencia CF (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 34% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Mirandés II or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Palencia CF or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Mirandés II clean sheet | 37% |
| Palencia CF clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mirandés II is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Mirandés II are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mirandés II vs Palencia CF — FAQ
Who will win Mirandés II vs Palencia CF?
Our statistical model makes Mirandés II the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Mirandés II 42%, draw 29%, Palencia CF 29%.
Will both teams score in Mirandés II vs Palencia CF?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mirandés II vs Palencia CF?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Mirandés II and 1.0 for Palencia CF — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mirandés II vs Palencia CF?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Mirandés II or draw is 72%.