Mirandés vs UD Ourense Prediction & Preview
Segunda B (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA B (SPAIN)
Mirandés vs UD Ourense
Model pick: Mirandés (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 0.27
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 27%
Both teams score: 32%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mirandés | UD Ourense |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Mirandés shown at home, UD Ourense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mirandés — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
UD Ourense — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mirandés (home) | UD Ourense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 35% |
Segunda B (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Segunda B (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 0.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (28%) |
| Double chance — Mirandés or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — UD Ourense or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Mirandés clean sheet | 76% |
| UD Ourense clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mirandés is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Mirandés are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (73% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mirandés vs UD Ourense — FAQ
Who will win Mirandés vs UD Ourense?
Our statistical model makes Mirandés the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Mirandés 52%, draw 36%, UD Ourense 12%.
Will both teams score in Mirandés vs UD Ourense?
The model gives a 32% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mirandés vs UD Ourense?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Mirandés and 0.27 for UD Ourense — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mirandés vs UD Ourense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (28%). Double chance for Mirandés or draw is 90%.