Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Model pick: Palmeiras (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mirassol | Palmeiras |
|---|
| League position | #17 (24 pts) | #1 (51 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 58% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Mirassol shown at home, Palmeiras shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mirassol — last 5
LDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Palmeiras — last 5
DDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mirassol (home) | Palmeiras (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 7-3-2 in 12 (1.9 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Jhon Arias (3) |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Mirassol or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Palmeiras or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 27% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Palmeiras is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Palmeiras edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Mirassol vs Palmeiras — FAQ
Who will win Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model makes Palmeiras the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Mirassol 30%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 42%.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Mirassol and 1.31 for Palmeiras — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Mirassol or draw is 63%.