Mjällby vs Sirius Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Mjällby vs Sirius
Model pick: Sirius (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.8 – 1.21
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mjällby | Sirius |
|---|
| League position | #12 (17 pts) | #1 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 0.9 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 88% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 1.4 |
*Mjällby shown at home, Sirius shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mjällby — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Sirius — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mjällby (home) | Sirius (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-4 in 7 (0.9 / 0.9 goals per game) | 7-1-0 in 8 (2.6 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 54% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.8 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Mjällby or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Sirius or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Mjällby clean sheet | 30% |
| Sirius clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sirius is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Sirius edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mjällby vs Sirius — FAQ
Who will win Mjällby vs Sirius?
Our statistical model makes Sirius the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Mjällby 37%, draw 25%, Sirius 38%.
Will both teams score in Mjällby vs Sirius?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mjällby vs Sirius?
Expected goals are 1.8 for Mjällby and 1.21 for Sirius — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mjällby vs Sirius?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Mjällby or draw is 74%.