Mjøndalen vs Jerv Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (NORWAY)
Mjøndalen vs Jerv
Model pick: Mjøndalen (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.21
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mjøndalen | Jerv |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Mjøndalen shown at home, Jerv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mjøndalen — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Jerv — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mjøndalen (home) | Jerv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% |
Division 2 (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.56
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 16%
Away wins: 42%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Division 2 (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.89 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Mjøndalen or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Jerv or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Mjøndalen clean sheet | 30% |
| Jerv clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mjøndalen is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Mjøndalen are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mjøndalen vs Jerv — FAQ
Who will win Mjøndalen vs Jerv?
Our statistical model makes Mjøndalen the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Mjøndalen 50%, draw 24%, Jerv 26%.
Will both teams score in Mjøndalen vs Jerv?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mjøndalen vs Jerv?
Expected goals are 1.89 for Mjøndalen and 1.21 for Jerv — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mjøndalen vs Jerv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Mjøndalen or draw is 76%.