Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava Prediction & Preview
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECH LIGA (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava
Model pick: Mladá Boleslav (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mladá Boleslav | Baník Ostrava |
|---|
| League position | #3 (11 pts) | #9 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
*Mladá Boleslav shown at home, Baník Ostrava shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mladá Boleslav — last 5
DWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Baník Ostrava — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mladá Boleslav (home) | Baník Ostrava (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% |
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Baník Ostrava or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Mladá Boleslav clean sheet | 27% |
| Baník Ostrava clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mladá Boleslav is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Mladá Boleslav are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava — FAQ
Who will win Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model makes Mladá Boleslav the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Mladá Boleslav 38%, draw 27%, Baník Ostrava 35%.
Will both teams score in Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Expected goals are 1.38 for Mladá Boleslav and 1.32 for Baník Ostrava — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mladá Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Mladá Boleslav or draw is 64%.