Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar
Model pick: Novi Pazar (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mladost Lučani | Novi Pazar |
|---|
| League position | #8 (1 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Mladost Lučani shown at home, Novi Pazar shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mladost Lučani — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Novi Pazar — last 5
LLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mladost Lučani (home) | Novi Pazar (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Petar Bojic (4) | Dominic Sadi (4) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Mladost Lučani or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Novi Pazar or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Mladost Lučani clean sheet | 30% |
| Novi Pazar clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novi Pazar is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Novi Pazar edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar — FAQ
Who will win Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar?
Our statistical model makes Novi Pazar the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Mladost Lučani 35%, draw 29%, Novi Pazar 36%.
Will both teams score in Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Mladost Lučani and 1.2 for Novi Pazar — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mladost Lučani vs Novi Pazar?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Mladost Lučani or draw is 63%.