Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki
Model pick: T. Mazowiecki (98%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.29 – 5.63
Total goals: 5.9
Over 2.5: 78%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mlawa | T. Mazowiecki |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Mlawa shown at home, T. Mazowiecki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mlawa — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
T. Mazowiecki — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mlawa (home) | T. Mazowiecki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.29 vs 5.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-5 (14%) |
| Double chance — Mlawa or draw (1X) | 1% |
| Double chance — T. Mazowiecki or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Mlawa clean sheet | 0% |
| T. Mazowiecki clean sheet | 75% |
🎯 Our Verdict
T. Mazowiecki is the model's most likely outcome at
98%. Despite playing away, T. Mazowiecki edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.9, this shapes as an open game (78% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki — FAQ
Who will win Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki?
Our statistical model makes T. Mazowiecki the most likely result at 98%. Full probabilities: Mlawa 0%, draw 2%, T. Mazowiecki 98%.
Will both teams score in Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki?
Expected goals are 0.29 for Mlawa and 5.63 for T. Mazowiecki — about 5.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mlawa vs T. Mazowiecki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-5 (14%). Double chance for Mlawa or draw is 1%.