Modena vs Avellino Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Modena vs Avellino
Model pick: Modena (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 0.85
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Modena | Avellino |
|---|
| League position | #1 (6 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
*Modena shown at home, Avellino shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Modena — last 5
WDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Avellino — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Modena (home) | Avellino (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 40% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Modena or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Avellino or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Modena clean sheet | 43% |
| Avellino clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Modena is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Modena are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Modena vs Avellino — FAQ
Who will win Modena vs Avellino?
Our statistical model makes Modena the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Modena 51%, draw 27%, Avellino 22%.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Avellino?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Modena vs Avellino?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Modena and 0.85 for Avellino — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Modena vs Avellino?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Modena or draw is 80%.