Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen
Model pick: Mokpo City (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mokpo City | Yeoju Citizen |
|---|
| League position | #13 (15 pts) | #7 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 11% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Mokpo City shown at home, Yeoju Citizen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mokpo City — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Yeoju Citizen — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mokpo City (home) | Yeoju Citizen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-5-3 in 9 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 38% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Mokpo City or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Yeoju Citizen or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Mokpo City clean sheet | 29% |
| Yeoju Citizen clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mokpo City is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Mokpo City are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen — FAQ
Who will win Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen?
Our statistical model makes Mokpo City the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Mokpo City 36%, draw 28%, Yeoju Citizen 36%.
Will both teams score in Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Mokpo City and 1.24 for Yeoju Citizen — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mokpo City vs Yeoju Citizen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Mokpo City or draw is 63%.